Probability & Partners
Experts in Risk Management and Modelling

The uncertainty of the economy has a significant impact on how companies operate these days. Enterprises that used to run smoothly with the help of forecasts and projections now refrain from making business judgments that are set in stone. Now, companies have a renewed focus on risk management. As a pension fund, asset manager, bank or insurer, it is increasingly important to make all risks manageable.

Founded in 2014, Probability & Partners is a risk advisory firm offering risk management and quantitative modelling solutions to companies within the financial sector, corporate, and non-profit organisations. Utilising its multitude of experience in risk management, Probability & Partners offers a broad and coherent proposition for financial institutions. The expertise domains are financial risk management, quantitative modelling, operational risk management, IT (security) risk management, and compliance (integrity and legal risk). The company provides its services in the areas of consulting, managed service, interim, and projects. “We understand and manage risk from various perspectives and map risk directly to investment decisions,” says Pim Poppe, founder of Probability & Partners.

Probability & Partners works with a large team of consultants and professionals who have extensive experience and have proven their added value in their sub-domains. To build the blocks for a coherent risk management framework, the firm adopts a thorough approach whereby all the essential components of a risk management solution are covered by an experienced specialist in that field. In case of an exceptional situation, the firm goes the extra mile and works with external experts as well to always deliver optimal service to its customers.

Based on a deep understanding of business and by using cutting edge quantitative analytics, Probability & Partners quantifies risks that organisations are facing and exploits those to their advantage. Together with the client, the firm indulges into an evaluation of the alignment of risk appetite with the mission, risk governance with business governance, and the relationship between the actual risks and the risk appetite. This information is handled by consultants who specialise in data disclosure, IT for risk management, model building and model validation to measure, monitor and report the suitable risk model. Probability & Partners keeps a check on the changing requirements for risk management, for example, new regulations, the new pension system, IORP II, IFRS 9 or the changing behaviour of financial markets.

Probability & Partners offers solutions to problems in which market risk plays an important role. The company builds and validates market risk models and has expertise in all major asset classes: equities, commodities, fixed income, and foreign currency. Also, they assess whether the models meet the legal requirements. Valuation of derivative products, asset and liability management, interest rate risk and inflation risk are few examples of Probability & Partners’ expertise in market risk.

Probability & Partners advises not only about reducing the edge but also about simple investment strategies. Their focus is on critical areas such as ESG investment (environment, society, governance), news and social media sentiment for investing and trading, and uncomplicated and reasonable asset allocation and stock selection. The company ensures to take an objective and data-driven approach to investment decisions and has an excellent academic expertise and track record in sentiment analysis for finance.

On the subject of data analysis and machine learning, Probability & Partners helps its customers to discover the potential that lies in data and uses the data to find empirically responsible answers. Using its substantial experience with advanced statistics, the firm offers a complete data solution for every project, including data cleaning and pre-processing, data analysis, model building and estimation, communication and visualisation of the results, and integration into the infrastructure of the existing customer. The key areas of expertise include statistical analysis of complex and large data sets, machine learning methods for finance and other applications, and data mining and big data analysis. Their implementation expertise includes R, Python, MATLAB and most statistical and ML packages.

In respect of audit management service, Probability & Partners has access to best practices in the Dutch pension world. The firm hones in on their employees who have internal audit expertise in setting up three lines of defence model for funds and executors, which is suitable for various management models and outsourcing models.

Probability & Partners have always proven to be very cost-efficient and transparent in its processes. The firm conducts seminars at regular intervals to assist financial industry leaders with practical handles that can be used immediately. Since its inception, Probability & Partners have been committed to making risk management a worthwhile endeavour for every business.